Contrarian edge, bottled
See the $6.1B ‘safe’ muni mispricing everyone steps over
We reframe water risk—drought and litigation—into tradable probabilities. Bayesian updates, Markov regimes, SDE paths, and Monte Carlo converge on one simple trade: a $100M short with 85% confidence.
$6.1B
CMF ETF exposure
35%
Default risk
31%
Lake Mead level
1064 ft (USGS-09422500)
$100M
Alpha opportunity
85% confidence
Lake Mead ChronoRisk Slider
2024–2030 simulated elevation decline with default risk and litigation overlays
202420272030
Modeling municipal risk with sovereign overlays? Contact access@aquitor.com
Bayesian disaster risks
Posterior probabilities for 2028 Los Angeles disruption
Nebraska–Colorado lawsuit: 73.5% P(D | Lawsuit)
Tribal water rights litigation: 72.5% P(D | Litigation)
P(D|Event) = Σ_i P(D|H_i) P(H_i|Event)Markov shortage states
Stationary distribution π for shortage severity
Nebraska–Colorado: π ≈ [0.08, 0.42, 0.50]
Navajo: π ≈ [0.09, 0.43, 0.48]
P = [[0.2,0.6,0.2],[0.1,0.5,0.4],[0.05,0.3,0.65]]Monte Carlo default risk
10,000 paths, 85% confidence
CMF ETF default risk: 35% (Phase IV). Confidence: 85%.
dP_t = 0.05 P_t dt + 0.2 P_t dW_tCase Study #2: Nebraska–Colorado Lawsuit
Driver → Impact → Value
Risk radar — Colorado River Basin
Toggle layers and run vector searches across NAIWRS/USGS
Live geospatial coming soon
Mapbox overlays for Lake Mead (1064 ft), SGMA basins, and tribal claims will display here.
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